We can’t predict with 100% certainty, but we can get a very good estimate of your risk using the QRISK3 (UK) calculator. This tool looks at your age, sex, ethnicity, family history, cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking history, diabetes, and some other factors.

🧮 How Risk is Calculated

Under 45 years → both lifetime risk and 10-year risk are useful.

Over 45 years → the 10-year risk is the best guide for treatment decisions.

If your results show you are low risk (less than 39% lifetime risk and less than 10% 10-year risk), your chance of a heart attack is low. The focus is on healthy lifestyle changes, and medication is not required. The cholesterol goal is an LDL level below 3.0 mmol/L.

If you are in the moderate risk category (lifetime risk above 39% or a 10-year risk between 10–20%), your risk is higher than average. Lifestyle changes are essential, and medication such as a statin or blood pressure tablets may be considered depending on your situation. The cholesterol goal here is an LDL level below 2.5 mmol/L.

If you fall into the high risk group (a 10-year risk above 20%), your chance of a heart attack is significant. Strong recommendations are made for medication, including statins and possibly blood pressure control, alongside strict lifestyle measures. The cholesterol goal here is to lower LDL below 1.8 mmol/L.

Sometimes risk is reclassified higher if you have:

Very high lipoprotein(a), a one-off genetic test (cost ~ $77).

Very low HDL cholesterol (included in usual lipid profile).

Signs of heart disease on scans (Calcium score, CT coronary angiogram).

✅ Take-Home Message

Know your numbers (cholesterol, blood pressure, blood sugar).

Stop smoking and maintain a healthy weight.

Exercise, eat well, and manage stress.

Medications (statins, blood pressure tablets) are used if your risk is moderate or high.